Allan Lichtman

[on how he correctly predicted the winner of Presidential elections since 1981] I do not consider the polls, I ignored the pundits, I did not look at the day to day events , in other words I had my own unique way of looking at elections, the keys to the white house, which is based on the study of every American Presidential election, from 1860 to 1980, I developed it in 1981 and have used it since for successful predictions for more than 30 years and the keys are really simple, their 13 true/false questions designed to probe the before the performance and strength of the party holding the white house and they look at the big picture, things like third party midterm elections, scandal, social unrest, the long and short term economy, policy change, foreign policy successes and failures, and the keys made evident, the vulnerability of the incumbent democrats who lost big time in the midterms of 2014 didn't have a sitting president running, had a contentious primary battle, had to deal with a third party that looked pretty strong through most of the campaign, didn't have a major policy accomplishment in the second term, didn't have a big splashy foreign policy success in the second term like dispatch of Bid Laden in the first term. Show less «

[on why he thinks Donald Trump won the 2016 Presidential election] he won not because of his campaign but despite his campaign which was really outside the parameters of history. Show less «